Review: How to Use a Password Manager

Normally with these reviews, we look at something related to investing, or some direct financial planning issue. But we’re going to switch it up this week. More and more of our life, especially our financial life, is happening online now. This is massively more convenient for almost everyone, but there are real risks. There are…

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What Do TIPS Tell Us About Future Inflation Rates?

Today, I want to talk about what TIPS can tell us about inflation. Exhibit 1 shows the TIPS yield curve for January 3, 2017. Yields are negative for TIPS maturing prior to 2022, and positive beyond that, although the longest ones do not even reach 1%. The Treasury stopped issuing thirty-year TIPS in the early…

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How Far Should You Trust Market Models?

We use models all the time. We are constantly making decisions based on them – everything from simple heuristics (nachos taste good) all the way up to (and including) quantum mechanics. They’re great tools for helping us understand and make sense of the world. But it’s important to understand their limitations and the dangers of…

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Review: Bond surprise: Yields dip despite Trump, Fed

It’s become an article of faith lately that bond yields have to go up – just like they were supposed to last year. Well, the market continues to confound the market timers. Bond yields are actually down. This is a good reminder that the market doesn’t actually care what you think. It’s going to do…

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The Investment TIPS You Should Care About

The U.S. began issuing Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) in 1997. Backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government and assurances that inflation cannot eat away at their value, TIPS provide a risk-free asset for U.S.-based investors. The face value and coupon payments are both indexed to keep pace with inflation and preserve…

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